A shot from the Leap Motion experience at SXSW
One of the big “buzz words” flitting around SXSW this year was disruption. Usually disruption has a negative connotation, but not in this context. Disruption is desired. Technologies like Napster, Netflix, Facebook, Twitter and the like have radical economic impacts and have transformed the way we all live and work. Venture capitalists walk the trade show floor and attend “accelerator” sessions hoping to discover the next big paradigm shifting technology that will corner massive attention and potential value because of it is so disruptive.
So what disruptions were afoot at SXSW 2013? Here are a few that caught my eye:
Leap Motion: Leap Motion is the first generation of a highly adaptable gesture-based interface for your devices. It operates like Microsoft Connect, but with a very different and more lightweight implementation. The first commercial iteration of Leap Motion will be in stores in May. The technology has a long way to go before you can get rid of your mouse, touchpad and keyboard. But for a first “leap” it is a good one. This approach to this device is the foundation for the future of gesture-based interfaces. As it matures, it will begin to show up as a component in many mobile technologies.
Google Glass: Announced last year at SXSW and discussed conceptually for the past couple of years, this was the first time “The Google,” as it is called here, put Glass on display in a packed to overflowing session in one of the large ballrooms. The voice-activated features demonstrated dazzled the crowd, but the approach to the API and integration left the crowd scratching its head. Glass did far, far less than what people imagined. That being said, Glass and other wearable technology concepts are the real game changers going forward. In the next year we will have iWatches of various sorts, our shoes and even some of our clothes may even have technical capabilities. Well-adapted, limited functionality, wearable tech is the next frontier.
Pervasive Networked Devices: Several mentioned the statistic that networked devices currently outnumber the number of people on the planet. This number includes traditional computers, laptops and smartphones, but also includes a number of other devices being developed and deployed that are networked and have processing capabilities. The disruption from this sector comes from the information gathering power of these devices. The level of intelligence required to interpret the data from these devices is difficult to imagine, but the person (or persons) who does it will have a peculiarly powerful platform. Look for more and more devices that include features that require an Internet connection. Many of these devices will create great personal value, but at what larger cost? But that’s a reflection for a later post…
Deeper Social Integration: Facebook and Twitter have won the initial war over social territory online (Sorry Google+). Tumblr has a nice following, but understands its place in a margin somewhere between Facebook, Twitter and long form blogs. The “disruptive” startups I encountered at SXSW this year were either extensions of or contextualized versions of these social giants. Look for continued, deeper social integration using these two primary tools and a few outliers in the year to come. Some very cool and interesting possibilities are on the horizon as these social media channels become the hubs by which we are connected to others.
The Death of the PC: Yes, you read that right. SXSW 2013 “called” the death of the PC. This is more an indicator of the disruption caused by smaller, more powerful laptops, tablets and smartphones than a disruptor, but consider the implications. HP, Dell and Apple, three of the world’s largest corporations, have a major portion of their business in the production of some form of desktop PC. Sales of these dropped tremendously in the last quarter and projections are not good going forward. High-end server production will continue so big computing devices are not gone forever, but it looks like the era of a PC in every home is over. So, the home computer goes the way of the television. This makes sense, of course, when I will have comparable technical capacities on my iPad within the next one to two years,
The industry itself: The primary future disruption on display was the tech industry itself. One of the key ironies, pointed out by novelist and futurist Bruce Sterling in his SXSW closing remarks, of technological disruption that comes about through continuous innovation is that the process of disruption must go all the way down. When we take a technical-scientific approach to all problems with an eye toward efficiency there is no stopping point. Once we believe we have arrived, new conditions arise that challenge our prior solutions and open the field back out again to better technology and better innovation. So, the tech world is never static but always in a self-incurred state of upheaval. Consider the current state of Microsoft. Once the leader in the operating system environment, where are they in the world of mobile which is ruled by “The Google” and Apple? What is its future? The question is whether this process of continuous upheaval is sustainable? But that, again, is a question for another reflection on SXSW.
In sum, SXSW 2013 seemed to suggest that disruption is a good word to describe our current economic climate. The technologies that have brought about amazing changes in how we live and work are developing so quickly that the culture cannot adapt. Small companies that either generate or can adapt quickly to these technologies benefit from the disruption. Individual adopters of these technologies also are quick to catch on – particularly those that are tech savvy. However, large industries dedicated to prior economic models and operational structures either endure or suffer in a culture of disruption. We have seen the tidal wave of change that is still in the process of disrupting the music industry, the film industry, the publishing industry, the public relations and marketing industry, and higher education (and education in general). The vibe at SXSW called for continued disruptive innovation through technologies that create greater efficiencies, leveraging the tools that we have to live smarter and to continue to create an open environment for commerce and connections world-wide.